of geomagnetic storms
from ACE solar wind data
Geomagnetic storms, characterized by Dst index, are predicted 1 hour ahead from solar
wind data using Elman recurrent neural networks.
solar wind plamsa and IMF data are taken from the
Space Environment Center.
The neural network models used here have been developed by
Wu  and Wu and Lundstedt [1996, 1997a, 1997b].
The models' performance has further been
verified from their capability to accurately predict a major magnetic storm triggered
by the 1997 January halo-CME
[Wu et al., 1998] August 1, 1998 Issue 14 - Sun-Earth Special Section Part II.
Provided by the
World Data Center C2 (WDC-C2 for
Geomagnetism, Kyoto University, Japan), the provisional Dst index (available on the previous day) is
used for comparison with prediction.
The prediction given below is 1 hour in advance, made from the solar wind input parameters
(B, By, Bz, N, V). To see the prediction from the input parameters (B, Bs, N, V), please click
The prediction presented here is still in a test phase.
The staff at NOAA's Space Environment Center in Boulder and the ACE project
teams are gratefully acknowledged for providing real-time solar-wind data.
The WDC-C2 for Geomagnetism, Kyoto University, is gratefully acknowledged for
providing the provisional Dst.
(1) Prediction of geomagnetic storms from solar wind data using Elman recurrent neural networks,
- Wu, J.-G., and H. Lundstedt, Geophys. Res. Lett., 23, 319, 1996.
(2) Space Weather Physics: Dynamic Neural Network Studies of Solar Wind-Magnetosphere Coupling, Ph.D
- Wu, J.-G., LUNFD6/(NFAS-1016)/1-136/(1997), Lund University, Lund, Sweden, 1997.
(3) Geomagnetic storm predictions from solar wind data with the use of dynamic neural networks,
- Wu, J.-G., and H. Lundstedt, J. Geophys. Res., 102, 14255-14268, 1997.
(4) Neural network modeling of solar wind-magnetosphere interaction,
- Wu, J.-G., and H. Lundstedt, J. Geophys. Res., 102, 14457-14466, 1997.
(5) Neural network models predicting the magnetospheric response to
the 1997 January halo-CME event,
- Wu, J.-G., H. Lundstedt, P. Wintoft, and T.R. Detman,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 25, 3031, 1998.
Some Links for Space Weather Forecasting
Space weather predictions (IRF/Lund Space Weather Center)
Space weather forecasting (NOAA/SEC)
Prediction of the Auroral Electrojet Indices (NASA/GSFC)
Real-Time Predictions of Dst (NASA/GSFC)
Real-Time Predictions of Dst (UCLA)
Real-Time Predictions of Dst (Japan/IRF-K)
Real-Time Dst Estimate (UC Berkeley)
Space weather prediction: Research and development (NRL/USA)
Some Educational Links for Space Weather
Space Weather: A Research Perspective
National Space Weather Program: Strategic Plan
National Space Weather Program: Implementation Plan
Space Weather Resources (Rice Univ.)
Dr. Jian-Guo Wu
Solar-Terrestrial Physics Division,
Danish Meteorological Institute
Lyngbyvej 100, DK-2100 Copenhagen, Denmark
Questions or comments can be addressed to
Jian-Guo Wu (e-mail:email@example.com)
Last update May 10, 1999.
Solar-Terrestrial Physics Division Homepage
Danish Meteorological Institute Homepage